Prediction markets have not covered themselves in glory as the US and its allies kick off a war in Iran. Kalshi has had to reimburse trading fees to customers who hoped their bets on “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader” would pay out in the event of his death, which would have unequivocally made the wager an assassination market. While Kalshi does state in their fine print that markets like this have carveouts for death to avoid being classed as assassination markets, the lack of clarity on the main betting page and Kalshi’s enthusiastic social media promotion of this specific event contract left many customers angry.24Over on Polymarket, the offshore prediction market that the CFTC is in the process of welcoming back to the country, there were no such barriers to traders’ fun. One trader named “Magamyman” made half a million bucks on the bet and other markets related to US and Israeli military strikes on the country, and placed his $87,000 in wagers over an hour before news of military action became public.
… Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) vowed to introduce legislation to restrict prediction markets, issuing a statement that he believed it was “very likely — probable even” that people close to Trump who had advance notice of the strikes profited from placing bets. Expressing fears that such markets would increase corruption risk and result in “people inside the Situation Room who are making decisions not based on what’s good for national security, not on whether or not we should send our young men and women overseas to die, but based on whether or not they make money off of war.”
Separately, California’s Democratic Representative Mike Levin and Senator Adam Schiff have introduced the “Death Bets Act”, the name of which alone sums up the absolute dystopia we’re living in at the current moment. […]
But hey, fear not: the death-and-destruction betting platform Polymarket has teamed up with the panopticon-for-hire Palantir in a cursed partnership they promise will ensure fairness in the sports prediction markets Polymarket is bringing to the US. So that’s a relief.